Research Programs

Emergent Precision

Oral traditions in specific domains maintain extraordinary accuracy: 98% tracking in animal behavior, 25-year rainfall prediction from stellar observations, 37,000-year geological memory. The observability gradient identifies the variable that separates accurate transmission from cultural drift.

Key Findings

• Observability-accuracy correlation: r = 0.527 across 41 domains (p = 0.0004); r = 0.893 blind-scored (n=7, p = 0.007)
• Flood direction traditions: 11/11 correct, mean error 13.7° (p = 2.7 × 10⁻&sup6;)
• Torres Strait stepping stones: pre-registered predictions confirmed at 30 m resolution
• Transmission stability: 82% accuracy after 7,000+ years (4 orders above standard models)

Papers

Two manuscripts in peer review (the observability-accuracy gradient + the 55-domain extension), the original Emergent Precision paper under cultural consultation, and the songlines paper held pending cultural consultation. See the papers page for the current list.

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Knowledge Extinction

Around 9 languages die every year. The majority of medicinal plant knowledge in many regions is unique to a single language. The most accurate traditional knowledge (high-observability, environmentally embedded) is also the most linguistically vulnerable. This program maps the intersection of knowledge accuracy and language endangerment.

Key Numbers

• ~5,300 endangered languages mapped (Glottolog v5.3, AES vulnerable through extinct)
• The majority of medicinal plant knowledge in many regions is unique to a single language
• High-observability knowledge domains (fire, navigation, ecology) are the most tightly language-bound

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The Great Circle

A quantitative analysis of ancient monument distribution along a great circle path. ~259,000 unique sites across 8 independent databases (over 550,000 raw database entries); 180,000 sites in the land-constrained monument/settlement spatial-test subset. The alignment is statistically real; the explanation is geological and geographic, not mystical.

Key Findings

• Monument enrichment ratio: 2.52× (Z = 6.74, p < 0.001)
• Settlement anti-clustering: Z = −2.91, the pattern is monument-specific
• Temporal peak: 3000-2000 BCE (Egyptian Old Kingdom pyramids)
• Zero of 10,000 random great circles replicate the combined divergence

Papers

Five manuscripts from this program are currently in peer review: the great-circle corridor enrichment analysis, the geological-circumscription methodological paper, the Orion–Giza statistical evaluation, the megalithic-stone-transport physics paper, and the latitudinal-vs-radial Clovis test. See the papers page for the current list.

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Culture as Computation

The External Referent Constraint (ERC) framework: a five-component decomposition of when cultural transmission keeps content accurate and when it drifts. What tends to survive is what the world keeps checking. The program tests this empirically across observable and unobservable knowledge domains and ties the cultural-scale dynamics to Friston's free energy principle and the Price equation as a single cross-scale claim.

Papers

Two manuscripts in peer review (the observability-accuracy gradient + the 55-domain extension), two under cultural consultation (fire management + songlines), and four in preparation including the capstone synthesis. See the papers page for the current list.

Full program details →